Ageing Population

9 May

 

 

 

China_AdultPercentage

The graph above shows the extent of the ageing population in the China.  An ageing population would be a problem in any economy but especially in China as they respect their elders enormously and are expected to provided for them after retirement even suing their children if they do not.

With the average pension being just $8.75 a month, the ageing population will learn on the younger generations more than ever. With the ageing population predicted to grow with 480 million people over 65 by 2050 this is a concern for China.

– Kaneda, T., (2006). China’s Concern Over Population Aging and Health. Available: http://www.prb.org/Articles/2006/ChinasConcernOverPopulationAgingandHealth.aspx. Last accessed 08/05/2013.

– Wee, D., (2012). China’s rocketing elderly population prompts a rethink on pensions . Available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/01/china-elderly-population-pensions-rethink. Last accessed 08/05/2013.

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2 Responses to “Ageing Population”

  1. aa29g11 May 10, 2013 at 10:09 am #

    “According to government figures, at the end of 2011, when the total Chinese population reached 1.34 billion, 13.7% of the population were 60 or over – that’s 185 million people.” This is a staggering amount of the population that is over the age of 60; this will lead to many issues in the coming years if it does not receive government attention. These problems include:

    – The cost of care for those who are above the age of 60. This transformation has been the result of longer life expectancy throughout the Chinese population due to better, health care, nutrition and well-being. It has also been the result of the One-Child policy being implemented in 1980’s. It reduced the amount of young people entering the population, yet it can be argued this was a better policy introduction, as an extra 400 million children will result in a even larger ageing population. This cost will ultimately lead to a larger fiscal deficit due to soaring pension expenses and medical costs. The reason o be concerned for China is there is still a developing class of people needing to care for these elder demographic, yet this class is not ready to hold the burden.

    – End of cheap labour. This principle has been exploited by many domestic and foreign firms within China over recent years as a tool to drive profit. Yet, there is a real risk that the 980 million labour force will surely reduce coupled with a dip in birth rates, will culminate to a smaller labour force. The result will be rapid increase in wages. Such changes will weaken the competitiveness of China’s export industries in the international market, affecting economic growth.

    – There are also social and political issues that may arise. The legitimacy of Chinese communist party as a ruling group of the country since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 has been based on its maintaining rapid economic growth.An economic slowdown could prompt challenges to party’s legitimacy.Existing disadvantaged social groups, such as migrant workers and pensioners, especially those in rural areas, will be most severely affected, and the social unrest sometimes experience in China now could become increasingly common.

    It is therefore evident that new policy implementations are needed by the Chinese government to try a reduce the impact of the ageing population.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19572056

  2. gs15g10 May 12, 2013 at 9:58 am #

    There are many graphs showing China’s ageing population at the moment the current trends are in a triangle shape (although still a very wide triangle) with the largest part of the population being young. however future projections show that the population on the same type of graph will be a rectangular shape with roughly equal amounts of the population in each category. However at the current rate it appears that the age of the population on the same graph may become an inverted triangle, which is bad news!

    The ageing population as you have stated above will have a negative impact on the domestic workforce – one of China’s clear strengths. The increasing population in India is set to overtake that of China by 2025. This will have a detrimental effect on much of China’s manufacturing abilities as foreign companies are already sourcing cheaper labour elsewhere in the region, especially Vietnam where the price of labour is significantly lower. A recent report by CNBC has suggested that the cost of manufacturing goods in China is beginning to rise to the levels of the US!

    Foreign direct investment in China fell by 3.7% in 2012 in comparison to a rise of 63% in Thailand and 27% in Indonesia.This coupled with the slowing rate of economic growth currently being experienced could cause problems for the great power in the future.

    The ageing population is a result of the one-child policy first implemented in China in 1979. Not only is this now having detrimental economic effects on the emerging economy but it has also had negative social effects, such as a surplus of men and a common family structure of 4-2-1, where one child has to support elderly parents and grandparents, to name but a few.

    There has therefore been much speculation over what the new administration will do to address this problem with many rumours claiming that it will be abolished in the near future.

    Sources:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100651692
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578245241751969774.html
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2013/03/28/why-china-is-finally-abandoning-its-one-child-policy/

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